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You may think that the 9/1 on Bolton to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Villa Park advertised in Ladbrokes’ window looks attractive, but once you’ve crunched your numbers it probably won’t be. The maths lesson Cast your mind back to your schooldays and you might recall learning about the Poisson distribution during maths classes. If your memory is really good, you might even remember that the Poisson distribution is a good way of modelling situations with a number of independent random events occurring in a given time or place. Certain conditions are needed for the Poisson to be applicable. The variable can’t be a negative or a fraction; the events should be separate and independent of each other; they should be equally likely to occur in each period; and the random events should also be rare. If you haven’t dropped off yet, you’ll have noticed that this description applies to goals during a football match. Goals (events) occur randomly and rarely within a 90-minute period. So, for example, if you’re interested in betting on the number of goals in a game and you know that the mean number of goals per game is two, then the Poisson distribution will provide a very close fit and allow you to calculate the probabilities of different scores. If, on the other hand, you were betting on a basketball game, where scoring is more frequent, the Poisson distribution wouldn’t be applicable.
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