P( x ; μ): The Poisson probability that exactly x goals were scored when the mean number of goals is μ. For a 3-1 correct score, the chances are: Needless to say, this formula, as any other mathematical formula, is a simple predictive model that doesn't take into account numerous factors. A manager change, a key absence, bad weather, fatigue or squad rotation etc., are completely ignored. However, if you really want to understand how to beat the bookies, you should integrate its meaning. These are particularly important areas in lower league games, which can give bettors an edge against bookmakers. It is obviously harder to gain an edge in major leagues such as La Liga.
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