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variables do not have to be equiprobable , which means that they do not need to have an equal probability of occurring. For example, even if a coin is unfair because it’s more likely to land on heads than tails, a series of tosses of this coin is still identically distributed, because the coin has the same probability of landing on heads each time. The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an event occurred more frequently than expected in the past then it’s less likely to occur in the future (and vice versa), in a situation where these occurrences are independent of one another. For example, the gambler’s fallacy can cause someone to mistakenly assume that if a coin that they tossed landed on heads twice in a row, then it’s likely to land on tails next. The gambler’s fallacy primarily attributed to the expectation that even short sequences of outcomes will be highly representative of the process that generated them, and to the view of chance as a fair and self-correcting process. To avoid the gambler’s fallacy, you should become aware that it’s playing a role in someone’s thinking, and then demonstrate the independence of the events in questions; you can also explain why this type of reasoning is flawed, illustrate its issues using relevant examples, and implement general debiasing techniques, such as slowing down the reasoning process. TENIS INFANTIL FEMININO CALCE curso apostas esportivas putting FACIL ORTOPÉ 22020 A - M. Debias Your Organization.
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